Modeling and Prediction of Land Use Land Cover Change Dynamics Based on Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Nashe Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Change of land use cover (LULC) has been known globally as an essential driver environmental change. Assessment LULC change is the most precise method to comprehend past use, types changes be estimated, forces and developments behind changes. The aim study was assess temporal spatial dynamics predict future using Landsat images LCM (Land Modeler) by considering drivers dynamics. research conducted in Nashe watershed (Ethiopia) which main tributary Upper Blue Nile basin. total area 94,578 ha. imagery from 2019, 2005, 1990 used for evaluating predicting spatiotemporal distributions image prediction generated depending on historical trends years 2035 2050. integrated TerrSet Geospatial Monitoring Modeling System assimilated with MLP CA-Markov chain have monitoring, assessment change, projections. Markov generate transition probability matrices between classes cellular automata were map. Validation predicted map 2019 successfully actual validation accuracy determined Kappa statistics agreement/disagreement marks. results depicted that forest land, grass range are affected use. agricultural 41,587.21 ha increased 57,868.95 average growth rate 39.15%. declined annually rates 48.38%, 19.58%, 26.23%, respectively. shows will further degrade 16.94% 8.07% 2050, while would expanded 69,021.20 69,264.44 2050 2019. findings this investigation indicate expected rapid coming years. Converting area, into other uses, especially future. Measures should implemented achieve rational conversion needs well managed.